Michael D. Swaine - Interpreting ...

Michael D. Swaine - Interpreting China's Grand Strategy; Past, ► Nauka, kursy, materiały szkolne, poradniki, ...

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PREFACE
This study identifies and analyzes the major factors determining
China’s grand strategy—past, present, and future—to better under-
stand the motivations behind Chinese strategic behavior and to as-
sess how such behavior might evolve in the future, over both the near
and long term. The ultimate purpose of such analysis is to more
clearly understand whether, and in what manner, China’s grand
strategy might pose fundamental challenges to U.S. strategic inter-
ests.
The study was conducted as part of a larger, multiyear project on
“Chinese Defense Modernization and Its Implications for the U.S. Air
Force.” Other RAND reports from this project include:
Mark Burles,
Chinese Policy Toward Russia and the Central Asian
Republic
s, MR-1045-AF, 1999.
Zalmay M. Khalilzad, Abram N. Shulsky, Daniel L. Byman, Roger
Cliff, David T. Orletsky, David Shlapak, and Ashley J. Tellis,
The
United States and a Rising China: Strategic and Military
Implications,
MR-1082-AF, 1999.
Mark Burles and Abram N. Shulsky,
Patterns in China’s Use of
Force: Evidence from History and Doctrinal Writings,
MR-1160-
AF, 2000.
This project is conducted in the Strategy and Doctrine Program of
Project AIR FORCE and was sponsored by the Deputy Chief of Staff
for Air and Space Operations, Headquarters, U.S. Air Force (AF/XO),
and the Director, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance,
iii
iv
Interpreting China’s Grand Strategy: Past, Present, and Future
Headquarters, U.S. Air Force (AF/XOI). Comments are welcome and
may be directed to the authors or to the project leader, Dr. Zalmay
Khalilzad.
PROJECT AIR FORCE
Project AIR FORCE, a division of RAND, is the Air Force federally
funded research and development center (FFRDC) for studies and
analysis. It provides the Air Force with independent analyses of pol-
icy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat
readiness, and support of current and future aerospace forces. Re-
search is performed in four programs: Aerospace Force Develop-
ment; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management;
and Strategy and Doctrine.
MAPS, FIGURES, AND TABLE
Maps
1. China and Its Surrounding Areas
................
10
2. China’s Heartland
...........................
23
3. China’s Periphery
...........................
26
4a. Early Han Dynasty
..........................
41
4b. Late Han Dynasty
...........................
41
4c. Early Tang Dynasty
..........................
42
4d. Late Tang Dynasty
..........................
42
4e. Early Ming Dynasty
..........................
43
4f. Late Ming Dynasty
..........................
43
4g. Early Qing Dynasty
..........................
44
4h. Late Qing Dynasty
...........................
44
Figures
1. War Frequency in Imperial China
...............
47
2. Major Chinese Campaigns Against the Periphery,
221 B.C. to the Present
........................
48
Table
1. Hegemonic Cycles in Modern History
............
219
vii
SUMMARY
Accurately understanding and effectively responding to the rise of
China constitutes one of the most important challenges facing the
United States in the early 21st century. China has always been an
important state in the international system, thanks to its great
potential power: large territory, vast resources, and a large
population. But its significance for international politics has
dramatically increased since 1978 when the market reforms initiated
by Deng Xiaoping placed China on a course of action that could
rapidly transform its latent potential into actual power. This process
is significant not only because it promises the internal transforma-
tion of one of the world’s oldest civilizations but also because, if
concluded successfully, it could result in a dramatic power transition
within the international system. The rise of China, consequently,
embodies great analytical and policy interest and examining the
determinants of China’s basic approach to political-military security
(i.e., its grand strategy) is critical to any assessment of current and
future Chinese security behavior, especially Chinese behavior toward
the United States and its allies.
This study examines China’s grand strategy from historical and con-
ceptual perspectives, identifies the major features of the strategy and
the major factors driving it, and assesses how the strategy will likely
evolve in the future.
Despite the fact that China’s grand strategy has never been explicitly
presented in any comprehensive manner by its rulers, there is little
doubt that China, like any other state, has pursued a grand strategy
conditioned substantially by its historical experience, its political in-
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