Metaphors and Modern Threats ...

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Reprinted courtesy of the
Strategic Studies Institute
United States Army War College, Carlisle
Barracks, PA
Metaphors and Modern Threats:
Biological, Computer,
and Cognitive Viruses
By
Edmund M. Glabus
Aegis Research Corporation
7799 Leesburg Pike, Suite 1100 North
Falls Church,
VA
22043
March 31, 1998
Introduction
One challenge of national security planning and force
protection programming is how to
visualize military
threats. For current operations, this task is made difficult by the sheer volume
of information we receive
purporting to help us understand threats to military and civilian assets
and operations. Unfortunately,
military decision-makers, planners, and analysts are often
exposed to more
information about any given situation than they can assimilate within normal
operational and
time constraints. When planning for future strategies and capabilities, the
converse is true. Instead of too
much information, we suffer from too little. Analysts, planners,
and leaders understandably are hesitant to "bet
the farm" on predictions, projections, or forecasts
about future adversaries and scenarios.
However, time and events
wait for no man. In the short term the budget calendar,
Program Objective Memorandum (POM) timeline,
and systems acquisition and fielding cycles
all drive Department of Defense personnel to identify assumptions, derive
conclusions, present
recommendations, and make decisions. The military leadership's emphasis on extending our
conceptual horizons (e.g.,
Joint Vision 2010, Army 2010,
the Army After Next Project, etc.) also
impels us to complete similar
actions with even less clarity and confidence in our assessments.
As a result many decision-makers, planners, and analysts use only a few, highly representative
pieces of information to reduce problems to a manageable size.
In the extraordinary, complicated environment of military strategy, decision-makers and
staffs will use these shortcuts, or heuristics, to classify
situations according to a few key features
and guide their thinking (and learning). There
is nothing inherently wrong with this shortcut
I
y
Reprinted courtesy of the Strategic Studies Institute
United States Army War College, Carlisle Barracks, PA
approach to planning and
decision making, as long as our heuristics are reasonably
representative.
One favorite technique is the use of the metaphor. As Martin Libicki writes:
Used properly, a metaphor can be a starting point for analysis, a littoral, as it were,
between the land of the known and the ocean of the unfamiliar. A good metaphor can
help
frame the questions that might otherwise not arise, it can illustrate relationships
whose importance might otherwise be overlooked, and it can provide a useful heuristic
device, a way to play with concepts,
to hold them up to the light to catch the right
reflections,
and to tease out questions for further inquiry.
1
One
useful metaphor we can use to visualize moder threats is that of the virus. Most of
us have some degree familiarity with viruses, either through a personal period of sickness, family
member illness, or perhaps from biology and health classes in school. Usually we are aware of
related terms like vaccine, inoculation, and antibiotic. Viruses are mysterious creatures to some,
but reference
to virus threats has achieved a degree of acceptance in national security
discussions. Two developments contributing to this acceptance are the recent emphasis on
information
warfare/information operations, with a strong focus on computers, and an
unfortunate
resurgence in biological warfare activities on both the international and domestic
scenes.
Before we can discuss using viruses as a threat metaphor, however, we need to define the
term in a conventional
sense
2
:
vi-rus...
[L, slimy liquid, poison, stench....]
1 archaic: venom emitted
by a poisonous animal
2a:
the causative agent of an infectious disease : disease germ
2b: FILTERABLE VIRUS; specifically : any of a large group of submicroscopic infective
agents that are held by some to be living organisms and by others to be complex
autocatalytic protein molecules containing nucleic acids and comparable to genes, that
are capable of growth and multiplication only in living cells, and that cause
various
important diseases in man, animals, or plants....
2c: VIRUS DISEASE....
3 : a morbid corrupting quality in intellectual
or moral conditions : something that
poisons the mind or soul....
4: an antigenic but not infective material
(as vaccine lymph)....
In light of this formal definition, we will use this paper to explore the use of the virus
as a
metaphor to discuss threats that are difficult to visualize. We will
focus on three threats that are
subsets of biological warfare, computer network attack,
and memetic warfare (Figure 1, shaded
Martin C. Libicki,
Defending Cyberspaceand Other Metaphors
(Washington, D.C.: Institute for National
Strategic Studies/GPO, 1997), p. 6.
2
Webster's ThirdInternationalDictionaryofthe English Language,
Unabridged
(Springfield, Mass.: Merriam-
Webster, 1961), p. 2556.
2
Reprinted courtesy of the Strategic Studies Institute
United States Army
War College, Carlisle Barracks, PA
area). Using the Army After
Next Project's construct of doctrine/concept/idea
3
, we can view the
three types of warfare
listed above through the metaphor of the virus, in order to present them in
an easily understandable way. As we move from biological
warfare, to computer network attack,
to memetic warfare, out illustrations will cross the spectrum from doctrine, to
concept, to idea.
Summary and Relationship of Virus Metaphors
In his book
Virus ofthe Mind: The New Science ofthe Meme,
Richard Brodie relies on
metaphor to discuss what he concludes
is a new form of virus. According to Richard Brodie,
"viruses occur in three different universes:
biology, computers, and the mind" (or cognition).
The following table, adapted from one found in
Virus of the
Mind,
"shows the correspondence
between words used to talk about evolution and viruses in each of the three universes."
4
In this
paper we will use Brodie's taxonomy to explore the use of the virus metaphor, and examine in
turn the use of biological, computer, and cognitive viruses as threat metaphors.
Biology
Computers
Cognition
Gene
Machine Instruction
Meme
Cell
Computer [and Paper]
Mind
DNA
Machine Language
Brain Representations
Virus
Computer Virus
Virus of the Mind
Gene Pool
All Software
Meme Pool
Spores/Germs
Elect. Bulletin Board Postings
Broadcasts/Publications
Species
Operating System
Cultural Institutions
Genus/Higher Classifications
Machine Architecture
Culture
Organism
Program
Behavior/Artifact
Genetic Susceptibility
"Back Door" or
Psychological Susceptibility or
Security Hole
"Button"
Genetic Evolution
Artificial Life
Cultural Evolution
Biological Viruses: Definition and Threat Context
Firmly grounded in doctrine, biological warfare is "Employment of biological agents to
produce casualties in man or animals and damage to plants or materiel; or defense against such
employment
5
. It is the easiest type of warfare to discuss using the term virus, as viruses literally
are part of the discipline. For purposes of this paper, we will use part 2b of the formal virus
definition above to describe viruses when the term is associated with the biological threat.
Although most closely related to the virus metaphor, biological warfare threats include more than
viruses (e.g., bioregulators, bacteria, fungal toxins, and vectors). From a layman's perspective,
though, these biological warfare threats can all be visualized in terms of viruses.
3
The Annual Report on the Army After Next Projectto the Chiefof Staff of the Army,
July 1997.
4
Richard Brodie,
Virus of the Mind The New Science of the Meme
(Seattle: Integral Press, 1996), p. 56.
5
Joint Publication1-02, Dictionary of Military and Associated Terms
(Washington, D.C.: GPO, 1989), p. 52. The
definition of biological warfare actually says "See Biological Operation," an interesting parallel to current
discussions about the relationship between information
warfare
and information
operations.
3
/oD
Reprinted courtesy of the Strategic
Studies Institute
United States Army War College, Carlisle Barracks,
PA
As with most national security
threats, the majority of official government
analyses and
estimates are classified.
However, one particularly good open source
document on the biological
virus threat is the Office
of the Secretary of Defense's
Proliferation: Threat
andResponse.
6
In a
concise threat statement, the OSD report
concludes: "Biological weapons have the
greatest
potential for lethality of any weapon.
Biological weapons are accessible to all countries;
there
are few barriers to developing such weapons
with a modest level of effort. The current level
of
sophistication for many biological agents
is low but there is enormous potential-based
on
advances in modem molecular biology, fermentation,
and drug delivery technology-for
making
more sophisticated weapons."
7
The magnitude of the biological
warfare threat is difficult to convey, but one
example
gives an idea of the potential scope of
the problem. According to an article by R. Jeffrey
Smith,
Washington
post Staff Writer, Iraq has
declared
it
maintained biological weapons including
anthrax,
botulinum toxin, aflatoxin, ricin, and gas gangrene.
Let's use only the first two of these
agents
as examples.
*
Anthrax: "This often fatal bacteria
causes high fever, difficulty in breathing,
chest pain and eventually blood poisoning.
Antibiotics often prove useless after a short
period. [Iraq has declared] 2,245
gallons, enough to kill billions. The U.N. suspects
production was three to four
times that."
* Botulinum Toxin:
"This bacteria first causes
vomiting, constipation, thirst,
weakness,
fever, dizziness, blurred vision, pupil dilation and difficulty in
swallowing.
Eventually it causes
paralysis, respiratory failure, and often death. [Iraq has
declared]
5,125 gallons, enough to wipe
out Earth's population several times. The U.N. suspects
the number may have been twice that."
8
Although it is convenient to focus on one country,
Iraq is not alone in this respect. The
OSD report
addresses potential research, production, testing, or weaponization
of biological
weapons by Iraq, North
Korea, China, Iran, and Russia, among others.
Potential non-state actors include
both foreign terrorist organizations and domestic
groups. Recently in the U.S. a "microbiologist on probation
for fraudulently obtaining bubonic
plague toxins in Ohio in 1995, and...a
Las Vegas area entrepreneur and home-laboratory medical
researcher,
were arrested... [and] charged with possessing anthrax for use as
a weapon."
9
Although
the vials contained a harmless anthrax strain for use in inoculating farm animals,
FBI
agents continued to investigate
the potential for criminal wrongdoing. Other examples are more
clear-cut.
As Charles Mercier writes,
6
Office of the Secretary of Defense,
Proliferation: Threat andResponse
(Washington, D.C.: GPO, November
1997).
Proliferation: Threat and Response, p.
81.
8 R. Jeffrey Smith, "Poison, Germ Weapons
Would Not Be Direct Targets,"
The Washington Post,
February 22,
1998, p. A28. As a point of comparison, the average backyard pool has 25,000
gallons of water (Source: Customer
service representative, Maryland Pools,
Inc., Columbia, MD).
9 William
Claiborne, "Vials Seized by FBI in Las Vegas Are Found to Contain 'Harmless' Anthrax Vaccine,
"
The
Washington Post,
February 22, 1998, p. A6.
4
Reprinted
courtesy of the Strategic
Studies Institute
United States Army War
College, Carlisle Barracks,
PA
biological...agents can
readily be developed
by terrorists... [requiring]
a college-level
knowledge of biology
or chemistry, less than
$20,000 in supplies,
and the forged
documents or accomplices
needed to obtain
"seed" bacteria or precursor
chemicals....a
US neo-Nazi group (the
Order of the Rising
sun) produced 80 pounds
of typhoid bacillus
in 1972,
and in 1984 Paris police
raided an apartment
rented by the Baader
Meinhof gang
and found flasks of Clostridium
botulinum culture.
More recently,
Japanese police found
160 barrels of peptone
(a growth media for bacteria)
along with Clostridium
botulinum
when they raided
an Aum Shinrikyo compound
near Mount Fuji.
Tricoecene mycotoxins
(e.g., "yellow rain")
can be produced simply
using a corn meal slurry
and the appropriate
strain of fungus.'
0
In
discussions of biological
warfare, we can start
by examining viruses
in a literal sense,
as part
of the family of biological
agents. It is very easy
for us to then turn to other
biological
threats (e.g.,
bioregulators, bacteria,
fungal toxins, and vectors)
and apply the virus
metaphor.
However, a more
interesting test is to
apply the metaphor to
information warfare, specifically
the
realms of computers
and memetics.
Computer
Viruses: Definition and Threat
Context
With
regard to joint doctrine,
Computer Network Attack
started out as an innovative
idea,
is currently undergoing
refinement as a concept,
and appears to be making
a formal transition
to
doctrine. Computer
network attack is currently
defined as "operations to
disrupt, deny, degrade,
or destroy information resident
in computers and
computer networks, or the
computers and
networks
themselves."'
1
It was
inserted in the draft
of
Joint Publication3-13, Information
Operations,
and has survived the early
rounds of staffing. Although
computer network attack
is
not focused
solely on defending against
viruses ("hacking" without
inserting viruses is a constant
concern among
military information security
professionals), computer
viruses are certainly a
leading threat concern. The
US Army's
FieldManual
100-6, Information Operations
also refers
to virus threats, but the
treatment is brief: "It is
even possible that a military
system could come
from
the factory with an embedded
logic bomb or
virus. In the past, new
commercial floppy
disks
used by government agencies
have been found to contain
a virus upon delivery from
the
factory."
12
We define computer
viruses using Dr. Fred
Cohen's
informal
definition.
For our
purposes, "a computer
virus is a computer program
that can infect other
computer programs by
modifying them in such a
way as to include a (possibly
evolved) copy of itself."
13
It
is useful to
10
Charles L. Mercier, Jr.,
"Terrorists, WMD, and the US
Army Reserve,
Parameters,
Vol. 28,
No. 3, Autumn 1997,
pp. 101-102.
1
Joint Pub
3-13pc,
Joint Doctrinefor
Information Operations,
PreliminaryCoordination,
28 Jan 98, Glossary.
2
Army Field Manual
100-6,
Information Operations
(Washington, DC: Department
of the Army/GPO,
1996), p.
5-9.
13Fred Cohen "wrote
the book" on computer viruses,
through his Ph.D. research, dissertation,
and various related
scholarly publications. He
developed a theoretical, mathematical
model of computer virus
behavior, and used this to
test various hypotheses
about virus spread.
Cohen's formal definition (model)
does not easily translate into
"human
language."
See Dr. Fred
B. Cohen,
A Short Course on
Computer Viruses, 2'
"
Edition
(Wiley, 1994). Credit to Nick
5
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